Clinton set to fight on after March 4th

Her husband may have stated publicly two weeks ago that failure to win both the Ohio and Texas primaries would end her chances of securing the Democratic nomination, but the noises coming out of the Hillary Clinton camp over the last three days suggest that her campaign is set to continue even if she fails to win both states tomorrow.

A memo sent to the press by her campaign staff on Friday attempted to draw attention to Obama's spending power and included the following statements :

If he cannot win all of these states with all this effort, there’s a problem. Should Senator Obama fail to score decisive victories with all of the resources and effort he is bringing to bear, the message will be clear: Democrats, the majority of whom have favored Hillary in the primary contests held to date, have their doubts about Senator Obama and are having second thoughts about him as a prospective standard-bearer.

The implication is obvious - rather than having to win both Texas and Ohio to justify a continuation of the campaign, the Clinton team believe that only four heavy defeats tomorrow would force the New York senator to quit.

Comments made today by both Mrs Clinton and her chief strategist Mark Penn gave further evidence that the Clinton camp expects the campaign to go on. Speaking to reporters on her campaign plane today, Senator Clinton was already looking forward to the post-March 4th states saying :

I think I know what's happening and I believe I'm going to do very well tomorrow. I think that's going to be a very significant message to the country, and then we move on to Pennsylvania and the states coming up. I'm just getting warmed up.

Penn meanwhile also spoke of the contests to come after March 4th, saying "there are 16 [sic] remaining contests after Tuesday.There's nothing wrong with letting the people in the remaining jurisdictions have their say." These comments will have done little to assuage the fears of senior Democrats like New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson and Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean, who have both spoken openly about the damage a prolonged nomination race will do to the party.

Opinion polling suggests the contests in Texas and Ohio are too close to call with the Realclearpolitics average of polls giving Clinton a lead of 6.4% in Ohio and 0.3% in Texas. So far this primary season pollsters have struggled to accurately predict results, and a comparison of previous Realclearpolitics averages and actual voting percentages in primaries and caucuses shows polling has tended to be particularly inaccurate in close races, with five of the eleven contests in which the Realclearpolitics average showed a margin of less than 10% going against the candidate leading in the opinion polls.

Two of the biggest turnarounds vis-a-vis polling and actual results have occurred in New Hampshire and California, where larger than expected turnout among female voters (in New Hampshire) and Hispanics (in California) proved decisive, further emphasising the key role that racial and gender demographics have played in this years Democratic nomination contest.

In Texas, Obama has a strong lead among blacks (85% to 8% according to Zogby), Mrs Clinton has a substantial advantage among Hispanic voters (55% to 33%) whilst the two are effectively tied among whites, suggesting the relative turnouts among blacks and Hispanics (respectively 21% and 24% of voters in the 2004 primary) could be crucial in determining the outcome of the statewide popular vote, a vote which both candidates realise has enormous propaganda value despite delegates being awarded based on outcomes in individual senate districts and precincts.

The demographics in Ohio are radically different, where 81% of Democrat voters are white , 14% black and just 3% Hispanic. In both states Mrs Clinton leads among women, seniors, Hispanics and traditional Democrats whilst Obama has the edge among men, younger voters, blacks and independents according to Zogby. Interestingly, Obama will be in Texas tomorrow night as the results come in, Mrs Clinton in Ohio, as good an indication as any as to where each expects to do best.

Where once it seemed likely that Super Tuesday II (as March 4th has been dubbed) would prove decisive, it now seems increasingly likely that, barring two enormous victories tomorrow for Obama, the race for the democratic nomination will continue on past March 4th. With Obama currently leading Clinton by 155 in the pledged delegate count, and with 599 pledged delegates still up for grabs in the post-March 4th states, the Clinton campaign may feel there is still plenty of time to catch up.

Clinton also still has aces up her sleeve in the form of support from superdelegates potentially making up for a loss in pledged delegates (an idea which is becoming increasingly controversial) and the possibility of do-over primaries or caucuses in Michigan and Florida, both of whose "rogue" primaries were won easily by Mrs Clinton.

However, even if Obama loses both Texas and Ohio he is likely to gain victories by wide margins in the next two contests after March 4th (Obama has excelled in caucuses in rural sates like Wyoming, and Mississippi has the largest percentage of black voters of any of the 50 states), and again in North Carolina on May 6th (another southern state with a large black population and the second most important remaining state in terms of delegates), giving credence to the claim made by Obama's campaign manager David Plouffe that it will be "virtually impossible" for Mrs Clinton to catch the Illinois senator in the pledged delegate count.

Given this, it is unclear how long the patience of senior Democrats like Howard Dean, Bill Richardson, Al Gore, John Edwards and others will last before Hillary comes under enormous pressure from the Democrat establishment to step aside for the good of the party, and allow Democrats to unite behind one candidate and concentrate on winning the general election in November, as Republicans have already been doing since early February.

Remaining primaries and caucuses and number of delegates at stake

4 Mar	Texas	hybrid	193
4 Mar	Ohio	primary	141
4 Mar	Rhode Island	primary	21
4 Mar	Vermont	primary	15
8 Mar	Wyoming	caucus	12
11 Mar	Mississippi	primary	33
22 Apr	Pennsylvania	primary	158
3 May	Guam	caucus	4
6 May	Indiana	primary	72
6 May	North Carolina	primary	115
13 May	West Virginia	primary	28
20 May	Kentucky	primary	51
20 May	Oregon	primary	52
3 Jun	Montana	primary	16
3 Jun	South Dakota	primary	15
7 Jun	Puerto Rico	caucus	55